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Repeat Challengers in Congressional Elections

University of California, Berkeley

Eric R.A.N. Smith

Columbia University

The incidence and success rate of repeat challengers in congressional elections from 1960 to 1980 are analyzed by year, party, type of election, and campaign expenditures. Overall, repeat challengers are not very successful. The chance of a repeat challenger defeating an incumbent is no different from that of two first time challengers over two elections. A second race for an open seat is much more likely to be successful. Repeat challengers who do win gained more than 40% of the vote in their first race. This is due, in part, to the fact that the vote in the first election has a greater impact on the repeater's subsequent spending than on the incumbent's expenditures, and the challenger's second race spending has a greater impact on the vote than does the incumbent's spending.

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