This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Pothier, J. T. Search for Related Content Social Bookmarking                   What's this?

Drop-Off, the Vanishing Voters in On-Year Elections, and the Incumbency Advantage

Yale University

House "drop-off" (voting for President but not for the U.S. House) has increased in the 1968-1980 period to the point that about 1 of every 11 on-year voters neglects to cast a House ballot. The increase is surprising, because many developments (e.g., fewer uncontested House seats, more third-party choices, and so on) would suggest declining, rather than increasing, drop-off. The competitiveness of the House campaign is the best predictor of drop-off, but most of the other key factors reflect characteristics of the district and the ballot, rather than the facets of the House campaign. Although the increased drop-off could have affected only a few House outcomes, it is likely responsible for part of the House incumbency advantage. Circumstantial evidence comes from a comparison of 1964 and 1980 drop-off, from a more pronounced House incumbency edge in on-year than in off-year elections, and from drop-off not increasing in Senate elections.

CiteULike    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    What's this?