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An Empirical Examination of the Minimax Hypothesis

Arizona State University

Tom W. Rice

University of Vermont

In this article we examine empirically the minimax hypothesis. The hypothesis holds that individuals are motivated to incur the minimal costs of voting in order to avoid the maximum regret: Their preferred candidate losing by a single vote. The results of our study suggest that a substantial number of people apparently do employ a minimax decision-making process. Over one-third of the individuals interviewed reported sometimes worrying that if they abstain from voting their favorite candidate might lose. In addition, these respondents were significantly more likely than those who expressed no worry to claim they voted in 1984 and to say they planned to vote in 1986. And perhaps most intriguing, further analysis suggests that individuals may be more likely to employ minimax decision making than expected utility decision making.

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