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American Politics Research
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Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote

James E. Campbell

Louisiana State University

Kenneth A. Wink

Louisiana State University

This research examines Gallup poll trial-heat forecasts of the two-party presidential popular vote for the incumbent presidential party. First, several existing forecasting equations are updated and evaluated. Trial-heat results at six points throughout campaigns from 1948 to 1988 are then examined. These trial-heats are used in several ways to produce presidential vote forecasts: (a) in raw form as direct forecasts, (b) alone in regression estimated forecasts, and (c) in conjunction with economic growth in regression estimated forecasts. As Lewis-Beck and Rice found in 1985, the earliest and most accurate trial-heat forecasts are those using early September trial-heats and second-quarter real growth in the gross national product. These forecasts are also more accurate than forecasts based on previous models. The early September trial-heat/economy forecast equation has an average "within-sample" error of only ±1 percentage point (adjusted R2 = .94, SEE = 1.5) and a mean "out-of-sample" error of ±1.1 percentage points. The early September trial-heat/economy equation correctly "predicted" the winning presidential candidate in ten of the eleven elections from 1948 to 1988, missing only in the near dead heat of 1960.

American Politics Research, Vol. 18, No. 3, 251-269 (1990)
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X9001800301
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