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Partisanship and Group Support, 1952-1988

University of Rochester

Richard G. Niemi

University of Rochester

The article updates the authors' multivariate analysis of group support for political parties through 1988 and expands it to new groups, midterm election years, and Republican identifiers. Shown in detail are the changes in long-term components of the party coalitions and the partisan tendencies of newly prominent groups such as Hispanics and religious fundamentalists. There are three general findings. First, the greatest movement is away from the New Deal Democratic coalition but not into the Republican coalition; Republicans have yet to find a strong basis of group support. Second, and of more theoretical import, is that changes in party support occur slowly, suggesting that group realignments have been characterized by secular decline and advance rather than by abrupt, "critical" elections. Finally, the newest groups tend not to be so closely aligned to parties as are the older groups, perhaps both a cause and consequence of the present candidate-centered party system.

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