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Primary Voters as Retrospective Voters

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Although retrospective evaluations of the economy and other issues have been hypothesized as major determinants of vote choice in national and congressional elections, there has been little systematic analysis of retrospective voting in presidential primary elections. Using the 1980 Democratic primary, the author examines the influence of perceptions of the economy and other retrospective issues in selecting a party's nominee for the presidency. Although the voters' family financial situation was a significant determinant of vote choice, voters' perceptions of Carter's handling of the economy exhibited the greatest relative impact in the model. Retrospective evaluations of the energy crisis and foreign affairs, as well as ideological orientation (representing "prospective" evaluations), were also found to have an important impact on vote choice in the presidential primaries. In short, this study demonstrates that, when a primary is contested by an incumbent president, primary voters behave in a similar manner to general election voters.

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