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Reading the Political Tea Leaves

A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections

University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

Building on the work of previous forecasters, I develop a model of presidential elections that deviates from earlier work by including a measure of aggregate personal finances. The results of the analysis indicate a highly accurate model and predict a Democratic victory in 1996. The discussion of findings emphasizes that, although the model predicts a Democratic victory, caution should be exercised before concluding that the outcome is cast in stone or that the campaign cannot make a difference.

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