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Fiscal Policy As a Forecasting Factor in Presidential Elections

University of West Florida

CHARLES M. BUNDRICK

University of West Florida

This research note presents a model in which fiscal policy, measured by changes in the ratio of federal outlays to gross national product between election years, is a factor in explaining and forecasting the outcome of the past 30 presidential elections. Compared with six forecasting models assembled in a special issue of this journal in the fall of 1996, the model performs satisfactorily. The model implies that to win reelection or extend his party's tenure in the White House, a president should reject a policy of fiscal expansion. It is hoped that this article will stimulate students of presidential elections to add policy variables to their forecasting models.

American Politics Research, Vol. 27, No. 3, 338-353 (1999)
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X99027003004


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