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Maximizing "Minimal Effects"

The Impact of Early Primary Season Debates on Voter Preferences

University of Notre Dame

CLARK HUBBARD

University of New Hampshire

Previous research on televised presidential debates tends to minimize their effectiveness as agents of mass attitude change, suggesting that they serve merely to reinforce existing preferences. Much of this work, though, stems from analyses of vote decisions during the closing stages of the general election campaign when preferences are anchored by 9 months of prior information. Using an experimental design that controls for debate viewership, we assess the impact of an early primary season debate—when voters possess limited information and potentially malleable political attitudes—on a broad range of political predispositions. The results demonstrate that debates possess the capacity to influence viewers' campaign engagement, issue appraisals, and candidate evaluations, suggesting that the impact of debates may be dramatically understated.

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