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Do Public Evaluations Of Congress Matter?

Retrospective Voting in Congressional Elections

University of Connecticut

David R. Jones

Baruch College, City University of New York

Although recent research has made great strides in explaining the causes of public approval or disapproval of Congress, there has been little evidence that evaluations of Congress have had any demonstrable effects on the political system. In fact, the literature suggests that individual members are largely insulated from public judgments of Congress. In contrast, we show that attitudes toward congressional performance affect outcomes in congressional elections. Specifically, voters hold the congressional majority party responsible for Congress’s performance, punishing House candidates from this party when they disapprove of Congress and rewarding them when they approve, regardless of incumbent status. These findings carry implications both for the behavior of those in Congress, where majority party members would benefit from acting in ways that boost the public image of Congress, and for strategic politicians hoping to attain office, who should take congressional approval into account when deciding whether to challenge an incumbent from a particular party.

Key Words: Congress • elections • voting behavior • congressional approval • public opinion

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