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American Politics Research, Vol. 32, No. 3, 310-337 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X03260353

The Calculus of Concession

Media Coverage and the Dynamics of Winnowing in Presidential Nominations

Audrey A. Haynes

Paul-Henri Gurian

University of Georgia

Michael H. Crespin

Michigan State University

Christopher Zorn

National Science Foundation

In this research we outline and evaluate a theory of the "calculus of concession": when and why presidential primary candidates exit the race. Our explanation builds on prior studies of candidate attrition that traditionally emphasize money. However, we focus additional attention on the role of the press and its potential to influence a candidate’s exit decision. Data from the 2000 Republican presidential nomination campaign are used to test a Weibull model of candidate exit. Our results suggest that money is a critical component. But our research also demonstrates that the influence of money on candidates’ decisions depends on the candidate’s competitive position in the race. The availability of financial resources is far more critical to a close runner-up than to a less established long shot. Conversely, news coverage is far more critical to the decisions of longshot candidates early in the campaign than it is to big-shot candidates later on.

Key Words: presidential nominations • media coverage • money • competitive distance • winnowing


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