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Voter Turnout in the California Recall

Where Did the Increase Come From?

University of Texas at Austin

Danny Hayes

University of Texas at Austin

Prior to the 2003 California recall election, pundits and academics pondered how a host of factors—including the historic nature of the election and the unusual cast of characters on the ballot—would influence voter turnout. Here, we examine two questions to shed some light on the turnout dynamics of the election: How was the recall electorate different from its 2002 counterpart, and what explains the 10% increase in registered voter turnout compared to 2002? Using the statewide voter file, we find the recall produced a younger, less partisan, and less politically experienced electorate. Citizens who stayed home in 2002 but cast ballots in 2003 tended to be intermittent voters. Media attention appears to have helped boost turnout, confirming in a new context other studies that find that lowering the costs of voting affects most strongly those citizens with demographic characteristics somewhere between habitual voters and hard-core and nonvoters.

Key Words: California recall • turnout • political participation • California governor • state politics • mobilization • information costs

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