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American Politics Research
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Strategic Voting in the California Recall Election

Daron Shaw

University of Texas at Austin

Mark J. McKenzie

University of Texas at Austin

Jeffrey Underwood

Charles River Associates

Given people’s interest in all things California, the novelty of the recall mechanism, and the presence of a bona fide action hero in the race, it is not surprising that the 2003 California recall election attracted an inordinate amount of national attention. The circus-like atmosphere should not, however, obscure the interesting implications of the recall election for our understanding of the broader phenomenon of strategic voting. We argue that partisans faced two different strategic voting scenarios in California, with Democrats confronting a slightly more subtle set of criteria and circumstances than Republicans. Drawing on individual-level survey data designed to gauge candidate affect and second-choice preferences, we find that strategic voting was common (although by no means unanimous) among those whose preferences placed them in a position to cast such a strategic vote.

Key Words: California recall • strategic voting • public opinion • turnout • voting behavior • political participation

American Politics Research, Vol. 33, No. 2, 216-245 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X04272230
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[Abstract] [PDF]