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The Swing Voter in American Presidential Elections

Northeastern University, Waltham, Massachusetts

When journalists, commentators, and political strategists talk about elections, few terms come up more frequently than that of the swing voter, yet this concept has been almost entirely ignored by academic analysts of voting and elections. In an attempt to fill that void, this article first develops a definition of the swing voter and then offers a simple way of locating swing voters in a mass sample survey. Using data from the American National Election Studies, the article then provides an initial look at the swing voters and how they differ from the rest of the electorate.

Key Words: swing voters • independent voters • electoral volatility • party identification • partisanship • split-ticket voting

American Politics Research, Vol. 35, No. 3, 358-388 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X06297000


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