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Comparing Predictors of Women's Congressional Election Success

Candidates, Primaries, and the General Election

Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge

Susan Welch

The Pennsylvania State University, swelch{at}psu.edu

Examining all Congressional races from 1992 through 2000, we explore why, over time, some districts are more likely to have women candidates and to elect women than are others. We focus on the obvious, but rarely explored, fact that women's election success is a product of three key stages of the election process: women running, women's successes in the primaries, and finally, women's general election successes. We find that different factors predict success at each stage and that the predictors of women's candidacies and success in open seat races are different than in others.

Key Words: Congressional elections • women and politics • women's candidacies • primary elections • general elections • political campaigns

This version was published on July 1, 2009

American Politics Research, Vol. 37, No. 4, 593-613 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X08325198


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