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Trends in Party Preferences 1949-1976

Miami University

This analysis explores the impact of war, unemployment and partisanship on trends in Democratic and Republican preferences. It furthers the discussion of the influence of economic conditions on party choice by exploring the hypothesized relationship in a different context-the influence of economic conditions on party preferences between elections. At election times, party choice is reflected in the two-party vote. In the absence of an election, a surrogate for party choice can be obtained from the distribution of responses to the frequent opinion survey query as to which political party could do the "best job" in running government and solving societal problems ("party preferences"). Trends in these questions reveal that unemployment diminishes Republican preferences (and increases Democratic preferences) while the existence of war exercises no significant influence on party preference.

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