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Explanations of Turnout Decline

A Multivariate Test

University of Houston

David B. Hill

Texas A&M University

Multiple regression and probit are used to test explanations of the post-1964 decline in turnout for presidential elections in nonsouthern states. Twelve socioeconomic and attitudinal variables are used to predict validated voting reports collected in conjunction with the 1964 and 1976 national election studies conducted by the SRC/CPS. Both the regression and probit analyses indicate that political attitudes, like partisanship and concern over the election outcome, have contributed to the decline in turnout; however, education and interest variables have offset the decline attributed to changes in political attitudes. The analysis leaves the puzzle of declining turnout largely unsolved. Alternative explanations of the decline in turnout are discussed.

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